The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped countless facets of life, but perhaps none so dramatically as the restaurant industry. From lockdowns to social distancing protocols, the sector that thrives on in-person engagement faced unprecedented challenges. An analysis of the data from 2019 to 2023 reveals not only the continuing impact of the pandemic but also the resilience and adaptation of the industry itself.
In the early months of the pandemic, the National Restaurant Association reported staggering losses, with estimates suggesting that nearly 100,000 restaurants shuttered their doors temporarily or permanently. This equated to about one in six eateries in the U.S. disappearing from the landscape, an unthinkable reality for many small business owners, including those like my own family, who once proudly ran establishments in Los Angeles. The ensuing years have been marked by a startling recovery trajectory, leading to a significant resurgence in sales.
By 2023, according to data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the restaurant labor force rebounded to approximately 13.6 million workers, representing about 8% of the total workforce. This rebound, however, wasn’t uniform across all job categories within the industry. The turbulent period of the pandemic reshaped employment patterns significantly. For instance, while the number of supervisory roles and cooks increased, the sector experienced a notable decrease in serving staff.
The BLS categorizes restaurant jobs into four segments: Supervisors, Cooks and Food Preparation, Serving, and Other. Observing the data from 2019 through 2023 reveals a stark contrast. While the overall workforce saw a decline, the nature of employment shifted dramatically. The decline in waiting staff, particularly in full-service restaurants, indicates that these establishments bore the brunt of the pandemic’s upheaval.
Interestingly, bartenders emerged as the only group within the serving category to see job growth during this turbulent period. With the rise of cocktail delivery services and more sophisticated bar offerings, this segment has embraced innovation more than others. This shift highlights not just a mere change in numbers, but also a transformation in consumer preferences and behaviors as they adapted to new dining realities.
Financial recovery within the restaurant sector has been equally remarkable. In 2019, the industry reported approximately $767 billion in total sales. However, amidst the pandemic, sales plunged by 13.5% in 2020, hitting $663 billion. It’s worth noting that it was not until 2022 that restaurants managed to recapture pre-pandemic sales figures. However, by 2023, restaurant sales skyrocketed to a staggering $981 billion, setting an all-time record.
This rebound in sales can be attributed to several factors, including increased consumer spending on dining out. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture highlights a significant shift, revealing that more than 58% of total food expenditure is now directed toward meals consumed away from home. This marks an all-time high, illustrating consumers’ growing preference for dining out rather than cooking at home.
Despite only a modest increase in labor from 2019 to 2023, the restaurant industry effectively boosted its output per employee by an impressive 28%. This increase is partly a reflection of rising food prices; however, the output per worker also rose from $55,700 to $72,200, indicating enhanced productivity. The primary catalyst behind this productivity surge has been the accelerated integration of technology spurred by the pandemic.
Online ordering and digital delivery services saw an exponential rise, with digital orders for takeout increasing by 115% from 2020 to 2023. Restaurants streamlined operations through touch-free experiences and self-service kiosks, reducing reliance on servers and enabling a redistribution of labor toward kitchen staff.
While the expansion of online ordering solutions has advanced significantly, kitchen automation remains in its infancy despite various pilot programs aimed at integrating robotics into cooking processes. Notable attempts have been made by companies like Chipotle, which has initiated trials with robotics as it navigates this new operational landscape. However, the scaling of these technologies across varied restaurant chains presents both opportunities and challenges.
In the long run, while automation in kitchens may not immediately translate into lower menu prices, it holds the potential to align dining costs with grocery prices. As restaurants strive for efficiency through technology, one must wonder whether this evolution will deepen the restaurant industry’s connection to consumers or create a divide.
The journey of the restaurant sector from the dark days of COVID-19 to its current resurgence underscores resilience and adaptability. Such transformations, shaped by shifting labor dynamics, increased productivity, and technological advancements, suggest that restaurants are reinventing themselves in ways that could redefine American dining culture for years to come.
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